Is Georgia in Play?

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politica...a-in-play.html

Will Barr Put Georgia in Play?
By Taegan Goddard | May 13, 2008 1:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

"With former Republican Rep. Bob Barr's announcement yesterday that he'll run for president as a Libertarian, he could actually play a very critical role in deciding the next president.

Most people think Barr's candidacy will drain votes from Sen. John McCain. Though Barr says he's not getting in the race to play a spoiler, that's clearly how he'll make the biggest impact. Hiring Ross Perot's former campaign manager doesn't mean he'll gather support anywhere near the levels Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But he can reach single digit support in many states. Ralph Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election with just 2.7% of the national vote.

The one state to watch is Barr's home state of Georgia, where he could conceivably get five or more percent of the vote. Georgia has long been seen as part of the GOP base. However, when combined with the large numbers of black voters expected to come out for Sen. Barack Obama, Barr's candidacy could possibly tip the state's 15 electoral votes to the Democrats. That could be the difference in a close election."

McCain's base states + his leaners: 245 electoral votes.
Obama's base states + his leaners: 221 electoral votes.

Tossups: Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9) -- 72 electoral votes.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_general_election_map.php#trackback

Electoral College: May 2008

Republicans: 183 Votes

Democrats: 168 Votes  

Undecided: 187 Votes

The large states in play are Penn 21, Ohio 20, Florida 27 and most of the states in the Midwest. Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are smaller states out west. New Hampshire with 4 electoral votes and a hotly contested senate race will be watched closely.